It is hard to write a preview for the Buccos after so much has happened this season. As it stands now the Pirates are projected to go 162-0. Adam LaRoche would strike out 648 times, but be offset by record setting years by Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Nate Mclouth who would check in with 162 homeruns; and Bay with 324 RBI. Zach Duke would have zero strikeouts and the Pirates would make no errors. This would go a long way towards winning a championship in my mind. Problem is, that was only one game. Optimism abounds, and rightfully so, after a gritty performance in a place where they previously were 11-42 all time. It should, however, be a guarded optimism as there are many question marks and variables beyond anyone’s control. Take, for instance, Jose Castillo’s weight. Currently svelte, Castillo may decide to have a Primanti delivered to him 3 times a day for the remainder of the season and turn into the Venezuelan Revolting Blob. This remains to be seen, but we will be breaking down the Bucs position by position starting with …
This Ain’t a Scene; It’s a Central Division Arms Race – Pirate Pitching ‘07
Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Tom Gorzellany and Tony Armas Jr. One of these pitchers is not like the others; one of these pitchers just doesn’t belong. The Pirates start the year with four home grown horses, a black sheep, and guarded optimism for a unit coming off a pretty strong second half of the season in ’06, but a slightly less productive spring. Potentially this rotation could get the Pirates to the playoffs, but the thing about potential is it can easily go unfulfilled. Zach Duke is not a Major League staff ace. He’s just not. He doesn’t have the stuff and judging by his work in the opener, we may be looking at Jimmy Anderson strikeout numbers. However, he is gutsy, tough and has enough to be successful in this rotation. Snell is coming off a mini-breakout year in ’06, and with the best pure “stuff” on the staff has the best potential to be staff ace. He finished 14-11, but his ERA fluttered near 5 in ‘06. With a full year of experience for Snell, this should be the “step forward” year, and with his stuff it would not be out of the question for him to finish with 16 or 17 wins and close to 200 strikeouts. If he can avoid the big inning … well there’s that cautious optimism (change up). Maholm is in much the same boat as Duke. Decent, not spectacular stuff, but a good make up and the ability to win 12-15, mostly because of his off speed pitches. Gorzellany has the best arsenal of all the lefty starters, but had a miserable spring and not a ton of MLB experience. He is a toss up in this rotation. Armas Jr. is a veteran who Pirate fans should best remember as the man Aramis Ramirez threw his helmet at back in the day, and is coming off a year in which his ERA was over 5, his strikeouts under 100 and his win percentage was … bad. He, too, is a toss up. This is one of the top two or three staffs in the Central Division, with the only drawback a noticeable lack of a Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, or Chris Carpenter-like ace. 2008 Name to Remember: Brad Lincoln.
High
Duke: 16-10 3.75 138 k’s
Snell: 18-9 3.23 204 k’s
Maholm: 13-10 4.00 168 k’s
Gorzellany: 15-12 3.89 184 k’s
Armas Jr.: 11-11 4.30 135 k’s
Low
Duke: 9-14 4.86 7 k’s
Snell: 11-16 5.03 170 k’s
Maholm: 8-16 5.24 140 k’s
Gorzellany: 9-15 5.84 170 k’s
Armas Jr.: 6-13 5.75 96 k’s
Expect the bullpen to be strong again with Capps eventually overtaking Solomon Torres for the closer role. The big question will be, with one of the two of them handling the 9th inning, who will make up either Torres’ 94 or Capps’ 85 appearances. One of those roles will need to be filled and judging from opening day, it looks to be Jonah Bayliss who will replace Torres as the 7th inning set up guy. The Pirates will have good lefty/righty balance out of the pen with Damaso Marte, Juan Perez, and the currently injured John Grabow from the left side and Torres, Capps, Bayliss, Shawn Chacon and the Paleolithic John Wasdin from the right. Expect a Josh Sharpless sighting sooner than later – the Wasdin experiment (band name) shouldn’t last long. All in all, a solid group here.
We Three … Catchers? Pirate Backstops ‘07
This discussion starts and ends with Ronny “Pope Ron Paul” Paulino (nickname courtesy of my buddy Eamon, who after deciding whether he likes a player or not the first time he sees them can create insane nicknames – others include his use of Josb, pronounced ‘Hose-bee’ for either Jose Bautista or Jose Castillo, can’t remember which one). He will hit .300, his power numbers will go up and he will handle the pitchers as well as a young catcher possibly can. Backing him up, stunningly, is Humberto Cota. He is a mediocre catcher and a single A hitter who constantly falls arse backwards into a roster spot. An automatic 0-4 can be penciled in next to his name in the lineup. The wild-card here, and seemingly everywhere, is Ryan Doumit. Doumit was once considered the Pirates next big thing, tearing up AA and AAA pitching on his way to the major leagues. Unfortunately Doumit has since torn numerous things, many of them body parts. Injuries allowed Pope Ron Paul to bypass him, but this is a potential .290 25 hr guy who will get most of his at bats in back up and primary pinch hitting roles. I wouldn’t expect big things until he gets consistent at bats, but the potential is there. The problem here is he won’t get those at bats. His primary position is catcher, where he is average defensively. Those starts will go to Paulino and, gulp, Cota (hopefully 3 total starts for Cota). He has been tried at first base, not great, and right field, not good. Because of his limited and below average major league stats, he is not worthy trade bait at this point and may be destined to be this team’s Lloyd McClendon – a catcher/utility/just a pinch hitter. Name for future reference: Steve Lerud.
The Ramsey Lewis Trio’s “In” Field – Pirate Infield ‘07
The infield the Pirates trot out onto the field every day should be among the best defensive units in baseball; just don’t expect them to win any batting titles. Well, except for that one last year. And possibly this year. But seriously, the Buccos are strong at the corner positions with Jose Bautista (for now) and Adam LaRoche (forever). Bautista has great range and a cannon arm and LaRoche has … a glove. On his hand. And he uses it. Well. Up the middle, the combination of Jack Wilson at short stop, Freddy Sanchez at second base, and Jose Castillo at McDonald’s will be top notch as it has been for the past 3 years. Last night’s opener showcased their abilities well, with three above average double plays and constant defensive solidity (another band name?) which will only help the young and potentially erratic pitchers. Sanchez is starting the year on the disabled list, but should return in similar form to last year. In addition, Pirate players rub his mole for good luck before every game (“BAD FORM,” yells Captain Hook). Until Sanchez is back, Castillo will get a chance to beat out Bautista for the other infield spot, even though Jim Tracy said Bautista won it in Spring Training. Clearly Tracy wasn’t watching, but more on that later. With a healthy Sanchez, one of those two will be the top back-up at second base and third base with the remaining infield bench spot being a duel between Brad Eldred and Pittsburgh’s own Don Kelly, the 6’7 89 lb. former Detroit Tiger minor-leaguer. No worries about a backup at first base with as many as four current players able to play the position (Nady, Eldred, Doumit, and LaRoche). Castillo and Sanchez are both capable at shortstop, so no worries there either.
Offensively, LaRoche will hit, although a 4 k performance in his first showing did little to prove that. But he does have a track record and the short porch in right field at PNC Park and will be close to 40 hr’s by the time its over. He may strike out 200 times, but alas, he likes hunting. That’s about all I could come up with. Sanchez will be a great place setter and hit over .300, though not as high as last year; Wilson will be frustrating; and Bautista/Castillo could be a huge toss up. Both have power potential, but both are anything but good major league hitters. Eldred should stay on the big club and give scary power from the bench and they all hit just well enough to be considered productive. Name to remember: Brian Bixler. Highs and lows for the projected starters:
High
LaRoche: .293 41 hrs 104 rbi
Sanchez: .330 9 hrs 84 rbi
Wilson: .290 12 hrs 60 rbi
Bautista: .268 24 hrs 75 rbi
Low
LaRoche: .265 26 hrs 80 rbi (2,256 k's)
Sanchez: .305 5 hrs 52 rbi
Wilson: .258 6 hrs 40 rbi
Bautista: .238 15 hrs 52 rbi
Waiting (Waiting), Waiting on the Starters To Change – Pirate Outfield ‘07
Jason Bay is the worst great player in the league. I know you think that doesn’t make sense, but trust me, it does. He is in the top 10 of offensive players in baseball in most offensive categories, yet I can not think of one of the other 9 who is so maddening to watch. Take for instance last night’s game, in which Bay’s first at bat lasted as long as Taylor Hicks’ career. Four pitches, 30 seconds and it was over. Pertinent stats from ’06: .286 avg. 35 hrs 109 rbi with an on base percentage of .396. OPS? .928. 102 walks. Ridiculous right? So were his 156 strikeouts. That is 156 at bats where the ball was not put in play. 50 of those strikeouts came with runners in scoring position, and with but 161 at bats in that situation, his strikeout rate was 31%. Should Bay cut down his strikeout numbers this year, look for his RBI total to increase substantially. He won’t likely surpass last year’s homerun total, but given some protection in the lineup by Adam LaRoche and an effective Xavier Nady or Ronny Paulino, it’s certainly not out of the question. All in all, he is a great baseball player who needs to improve in some little, but important areas to be in the same class of run producers as Pujols and Manny Ramirez. It’s not out of the question, however that this could happen. Chris Duffy in centerfield is a huge question mark for this team. He bats leadoff, which is important as he needs to be on base for Bay and company to be effective. He has great speed, but after last year’s breakdown that caused him to leave the team for two months, there have to be concerns. He did rebound to hit .282 after the all star break, including .336 in September, and steal 23 bases on 24 attempts those final two months, so the potential for being effective is there. A fast start, however, is a must. Defense is not a concern with Duffy, as evidenced by the game last night. Should Duffy stumble out of the gates, however, the Pirates should have Andrew McCutchen on speed-dial. McCutchen has future All-Star written all over him, albeit in invisible ink at this point. Think yearly .300 25 80 with 30 stolen bases and great defense. In right field, Xavier Nady has started on the right foot by hitting the game tying home run last night off Houston closer of yesteryear Brad Lidge. I still don’t believe Nady is the long-term answer in right field, and would love to see one more left handed youngster in this spot, but that will have to wait. Nady, however is extremely valuable with his ability to play first base or outfield and hit decently doing both. This is not a great outfield, at all, but serviceable for the time being. Backups will be Nate McClouth, Ryan Doumit, and Brad Eldred, all of which we have discussed before. Expect a mid to late season McCutchen sighting almost regardless.
High
Bay: .305 40 hr 123 rbi
Duffy: .280 4 hr 41 rbi (41 sb)
Nady: .290 22 hr 80 rbi
Low
Bay: .280 27 hr 100 rbi
Duffy: .255 4 hr 30 rbi (25 sb)
Nady: .260 14 hr 60 rbi
In The Year 2525 – Pirate Coaching and Front Office ‘07
Manager Jim Tracy, at least last night, stayed away from playing “small-ball.” That is to say, he did not steal bases, he did not order bunts. He shied away from manufacturing runs, instead relying on the lumber company of McClouth, Nady, and Bay to do all the manufacturing for him. It worked once, now don’t expect it to work again for a long time. Bunts, sacrifices, and stolen bases will tell the tale of this team. Should Duffy, Sanchez, and Wilson be productive in those facets of the game, the run producers should put enough runs on the board to be effective. If Tracy tries to play Yankee-ball, this could be an ugly offensive year. Defensively, this team will be far above average, no worries there. With the pitching, Tracy will have to keep a careful eye on Gorzellany, Armas Jr. and Solomon Torres. Changes are most likely with these three pitchers. Expect Shawn Chacon to be showcased early, even interchangeable with Armas. Those two have high salaries for this team and are pretty far down on the order of importance list. Tracy could do good things with this team, but he needs to be more imaginative and aggressive in his managing style. Wins only happen with runs on the scoreboard.
GM David Littlefield has, to his credit, put together a much better opening day lineup for 2007 and beyond than he had for the few years prior to this. There are still some glaring needs in the organization, especially in the field, for Littlefield and staff to address. The lack of a proven power hitting prospect within the organization belies the future brilliance of McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Brad Lincoln – barring injuries of course. Maybe someone will show themselves to be that person this year, but almost nobody in the organization outside of Stephen Pearce has that pedigree. A few more power arms along the lines of Ian Snell, Brad Lincoln and Tom Gorzellany. A few trades to pickup players in the 23-27 age group - along the lines of Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche – either castoffs from playoff contenders or prospect busts. These are players who, given a chance, can turn into a Jason Bay. All in all, I would expect very little from Littlefield. Just saying.
Overstatements Incorporated – Buccos Broadcasting ‘07
Greg Brown, apparently finishing a half gallon of moonshine on the air, surmised that the great pitches Jason Bay saw last night (and did very little with until extra innings) were due to the presence of the feared Adam LaRoche. While Brown will be proven right down the road, this statement at the time it was made was ridiculous. LaRoche was in the middle of striking out 4 times in 5 at bats and had barely made contact the entire night. Just innings earlier Bob Walk, usually coherent and a good baseball mind, discussed name recognition as a better barometer of Hall of Fame status than statistics. Honestly, how many 3,000 hit players have flown under the radar? Not many. Lanny Frattare and Steve Blass provide solid back up and in case you are interested you can purchase an original Lanny Frattare scorecard from the past 30 years of his broadcasting era at
http://www.lannycards.com/. Seriously read through this web-site. Classic. But you can expect Greg Brown to inexplicably lose his mind over random and seemingly inconsequential plays in each game. Greg Brown makes Gus Johnson sound like Helen Keller. Bob Walk knows a ton of baseball and is good for two to three unbelievably long and random stories per game.
The Past is Only the Future With the Lights On – Prediction ‘07Much like the start of every year in almost every sport, there are many unknowns entering 2007 for the Pittsburgh Pirates. This Pirate team is one that, much like its NHL counterpart, has come up together and enjoys playing with each other. Unlike that Penguin team, the Pirates lack a Sidney Crosby talent – the sort of game changing and league transcending talent that will carry the team for long stretches. I see the Pirates taking a step forward this year, especially in the young pitcher category. They will fall just a few people short of being a good team and finish 79-83. Next year baby. Next year.
